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The GOP Needs a Big Trump Loss in NV, NH, NC and PA

Crash and Burn
The GOP Needs a Big Trump Loss in NV, NH, NC and PA

If Republicans want to hold the Senate majority, the key may be in a huge Trump loss in several critical states.

There are four weeks until Election Day, and it’s time for the GOP to engage in reality regarding their chances to hold the Senate majority. The White House is gone, and no amount of fantasy from Trump supporters is bringing it back.

Using data that has no impact from last Friday’s report by the Washington Post about Donald Trump’s statements to Billy Bush in 2005, the Electoral College map is a GOP disaster. Simply put, Clinton has to succeed in only one of six toss-up states and Trump is mathematically beat.

Electoral College Map

Without the inevitable fallout from Friday’s revelations, Trump would have to effectively run the table and win all but one of the toss-ups. The odds of that occurring are simply inestimable.

In the Senate, it is effectively a dead-heat as of this writing with 6 states up for grabs. The GOP has to carry four of them to eke out a 51 to 49 majority. That’s going to be tough task but ironically Trump’s failures may have a beneficial impact, if he actually loses four key states by large margins.

Currently the Senate map shows a 47-47 split with six races too tight to call.

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Senate Map

I have put Florida in the win column with Marco Rubio holding off Pat Murphy. That leaves Indiana, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina and Pennsylvania up for grabs. If the Democrats get just three of them (a 50-50 split) they will control the Senate. In order for the GOP to succeed they must get voters to either split tickets or not vote for a POTUS candidate while rallying behind their senate candidates. A tall order but they may have an unlikely ally in the form of Donald Trump.

Yes, Trump may be the saving grace in this bizarre election year by actually losing by wider margins than he already trails by in Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina and Pennsylvania. There are a few other variables, such as Mike Pence’s ability to help Todd Young overtake Evan Bayh in Indiana; and Roy Blunt might be able to hang on in Missouri. That would certainly be a boost to GOP hopes but short of maintaining the majority.

Trump and Senate Chart

The intriguing possibilities lie in the other states where Trump is behind by a low of 1.4% to a high of 8.6%, while the GOP senate candidates are outperforming him by a range of 3.4% to 8.2%.

Numbers are assuredly fallible but they also are most often reliable barometers of current attitudes, and there are four states where voters are showing a willingness to eschew Donald Trump and support the GOP senatorial candidate.

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There have been similar circumstances in elections gone by so this is not uncharted territory. But in this most bizarre of election years, it is ironic that a complete crash-and-burn by a major party’s presidential candidate could be the catalyst to down-ticket victories.


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Tom Dougherty
About Tom Dougherty 23 Articles
Political data expert who detests apathy and respects accountability. President & CEO of Practical Politicking. Headed back to sea soon aboard DANGER ZONE, my Melges 24 racing sailboat.

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