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ACSI Poll: Clinton Leads Trump by 11 Points with 50 Percent Voter Share

Hillary Clinton
ACSI Poll: Clinton Leads Trump by 11 Points with 50 Percent Voter Share

ANN ARBOR, Mich., Oct. 28, 2016 /PRNewswire/ — With less than two weeks to go before Election Day, Democrat Hillary Clinton maintains a double-digit lead in voter share over Republican Donald Trump – 50 percent to 39 percent – in a nationwide poll of registered voters from the American Customer Satisfaction Index.

The ACSI uses an economic model of buyer choice applied to voting behavior. Like consumers, voters choose candidates based on the expected satisfaction (or utility in economics) that a candidate will deliver once in office. In the market for goods and services, expected satisfaction is predicted by past satisfaction. In the absence of “actual” prior satisfaction in advance of the inauguration of a new president, the ACSI uses a proxy: satisfaction with each candidate and his or her campaign. This measure is informative about the strength/weakness of a candidate’s support. The expected satisfaction is forward looking and used to predict market share, or in this case, voter share.

The ACSI characterizes supporters as “strong” or “weak” depending on the gap in both satisfaction and expectations for each of the candidates. By this measure, strong supporters are unlikely to shift. Clinton’s strong support slips to 39 percent, but stays well ahead of Trump’s 28 percent. Trump converts weak supporters to trim his deficit in strong supporters to 11 points. Trump and Clinton have nearly the same percentage of weak supporters, with Clinton at 11 percent and Trump at 10 percent. Undecideds, or those who give both candidates equal satisfaction scores, inches up to 11 percent.

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The ACSI surveyed 813 registered voters nationwide from October 24 to October 27, 2016, for a total of 13,677 since the survey began on August 1, 2016. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points for voter share. The ACSI Presidential Election Survey will report results weekly through Election Day. Visit our blog ACSIMatters.com for additional data and tables.

Follow ACSI on Twitter at @theACSI and Like us on Facebook.

No advertising or other promotional use can be made of the data and information in this release without the express prior written consent of ACSI LLC.

About ACSI
The American Customer Satisfaction Index (ACSI) is a national economic indicator of customer evaluations of the quality of products and services available to household consumers in the United States. The ACSI uses data from interviews with roughly 70,000 customers annually as inputs to an econometric model for analyzing customer satisfaction with more than 300 companies in 43 industries and 10 economic sectors, including various services of federal and local government agencies.

ACSI results are released throughout the year, with all measures reported on a scale of 0 to 100. ACSI data have proven to be strongly related to a number of essential indicators of micro and macroeconomic performance. For example, firms with higher levels of customer satisfaction tend to have higher earnings and stock returns relative to competitors. Stock portfolios based on companies that show strong performance in ACSI deliver excess returns in up markets as well as down markets. At the macro level, customer satisfaction has been shown to be predictive of both consumer spending and GDP growth.

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ACSI and its logo are Registered Marks of the University of Michigan, licensed worldwide exclusively to American Customer Satisfaction Index LLC with the right to sublicense.

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SOURCE American Customer Satisfaction Index


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