Clinton wins the Electoral College 322 to 216; the US Senate needs the VP to break ties; and the GOP still controls the House.
My purely mathematical analysis of the Electoral College, and the Congressional races, projects a Clinton victory, a 50-50 split in the US Senate, and a loss of seven seats for the GOP in the US House.
There are many variables used to calculate these projections including, in no particular order:
- FEC financial reports
- Media buy trends and sizes viewed by timeline throughout the election cycle
- Demographic shifts based on trend analysis from prior years
- Early voting results in states where party identification is available
- Select polling that meets specific criteria for methodology and sampling
- Comparative analyses at the state and district level against previous election cycles
These variables, and another half-dozen or so, are processed through a set of algorithms to determine the final numbers presented here. There are no anecdotal or non-quantitative values used in the process.
Projected Electoral College Map
Projected US Senate Results
Projected US House Results
The GOP will maintain control of the lower congressional chamber by a margin of 240 to 195. There are 38 “competitive” races with the individual districts shown below.
Many will agree, many will disagree, many will have no clue … if you think you have a better system I’m always open to seeing other projections. Post them in the comments section (after signing up for a FREE 90-day trial, use discount code LAUNCH2016) and we’ll see who comes closest on Tuesday night.