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The Math: Clinton Wins, Senate Splits, GOP Holds the House

Election 2016 - The Final Math
The Math: Clinton Wins, Senate Splits, GOP Holds the House

Clinton wins the Electoral College 322 to 216; the US Senate needs the VP to break ties; and the GOP still controls the House.

My purely mathematical analysis of the Electoral College, and the Congressional races, projects a Clinton victory, a 50-50 split in the US Senate, and a loss of seven seats for the GOP in the US House.

There are many variables used to calculate these projections including, in no particular order:

  • FEC financial reports
  • Media buy trends and sizes viewed by timeline throughout the election cycle
  • Demographic shifts based on trend analysis from prior years
  • Early voting results in states where party identification is available
  • Select polling that meets specific criteria for methodology and sampling
  • Comparative analyses at the state and district level against previous election cycles

These variables, and another half-dozen or so, are processed through a set of algorithms to determine the final numbers presented here. There are no anecdotal or non-quantitative values used in the process.

Projected Electoral College Map

Electoral College Map

Projected US Senate Results

US Senate Map

Projected US House Results

The GOP will maintain control of the lower congressional chamber by a margin of 240 to 195. There are 38 “competitive” races with the individual districts shown below.

US House Competitive Races

Many will agree, many will disagree, many will have no clue … if you think you have a better system I’m always open to seeing other projections. Post them in the comments section (after signing up for a FREE 90-day trial, use discount code LAUNCH2016) and we’ll see who comes closest on Tuesday night.


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Tom Dougherty
About Tom Dougherty 23 Articles
Political data expert who detests apathy and respects accountability. President & CEO of Practical Politicking. Headed back to sea soon aboard DANGER ZONE, my Melges 24 racing sailboat.

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